A scattering of afternoon storms are expected through midweek, but by the weekend, rain chances will fade as extreme heat takes over. In the eastern Atlantic, Erin is forecast to reach hurricane strength later this week, but it poses no threat to The Gulf.

Today & Tonight: Highs will reach the low 90s under partly to mostly cloudy skies Tuesday. Spotty showers will develop around midday, becoming more scattered in the afternoon with heavy rain, frequent lightning, and possible impacts to the evening commute. About 60% of the Capital Region will see rain. Storms will fade after sunset with gradual clearing overnight.

Up Next: Wednesday will bring another round of scattered storms and highs in the low 90s. Towards the end of the week, a ridge of high pressure will move in, limiting rain and pushing highs into the mid-90s with heat index values 10–15° higher. Heat alerts are likely over the weekend. 

The Tropics: Tropical Storm Erin continues to move west of the Cabo Verde Islands early Tuesday. Gradual strengthening is expected through midweek, but the rate of intensification will pick up afterward. Erin will become the first hurricane, and possibly the first major hurricane, of the 2025 hurricane season by the weekend. The storm will approach the Leeward Islands around that time.

Beyond the weekend, the forecast track becomes less clear. Most guidance seems to indicate that Erin will eventually curve north, but when and how aggressive that turn will be is to be determined. It's still too early to speculate on any potential U.S. impacts — if they occur at all. But at this point, a track into the Gulf appears to be the unlikely scenario. Check back with the Storm Station for future updates.

Meanwhile, a non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity to the west of its center.  Some limited tropical or subtropical development is possible over the next day or so as the low meanders near the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream.  By the middle of this week, the system is expected to move northward over cooler waters, ending its chances for further tropical development.

A surface trough in the north-central Gulf is associated with a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While
development of this system is not anticipated before it moves inland later today, locally heavy rainfall could produce flash
flooding across portions of the central Gulf Coast over the next day or two.