Warm afternoons will dominate our forecast through the middle of the week, while the dry air will keep fire danger elevated across Louisiana and Mississippi. Some needed rain may arrive by the weekend, but maybe with suboptimal timing for trick-or-treaters on Halloween.

More of the Same: crisp mornings, warm afternoons and high clouds through Thursday

Halloween Trick: showers possible for the first time since early in the month

Muggy for a While: weekend into next week

Tonight and Tomorrow: Cool, crisp conditions are expected again tonight. Expect temperatures to fall quickly after sunset, landing in the mid-50s by early Tuesday morning. Tuesday will bring plenty of sunshine, though we will once again notice some thin, high clouds. The high temperatures will climb into the low 80s.

Up Next: Wednesday and Thursday will follow a nearly identical pattern: cool starts in the mid-50s and sunny, warm afternoons topping out in the mid 80s. Sunshine will be the dominant feature in the skies, though some high clouds will still pass through from time to time.  

The first signs of changes in almost two weeks will be noticeable at the end of the workweek. On Friday, winds will turn out of the south, drawing moist air back into the Capital Area. This moisture will set the stage for a very weak disturbance in the atmosphere to move into the region on Saturday. In combination, these two variables will create some isolated showers and the first real chance for a few neighborhoods to measure rain since early October. Isolated is an important word right now, as this does not have the makings of a major rain event, and there could be some spots that miss the showers.  

While the rain is the good news, the timing is the bad news. Showers on Saturday could mean costumes could get damp for some trick-or-treaters. Keep an eye on the forecast as timing of showers may come into better focus with time. Fortunately, the atmosphere will not be very supportive of thunderstorms, and so a serious lightning threat appears unlikely.

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The Tropics: The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and broader Atlantic Basin will remain completely quiet. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected anywhere in the North Atlantic over the next 7 days.

– Josh 

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