We will be on the temperature roller coaster this week because of multiple front passages. Along with a few of these fronts, there will be some strong to severe thunderstorms.

Today & Tonight: A warm front passing through the area this morning will cause temperatures to be much warmer today. Look for a high near 83° in Baton Rouge – easily challenging the record of 81° (2024, 2017, 1999). We will start mostly cloudy, and stay that way all day long. As for rainfall, a few spotty showers will be possible during daytime hours, but most will stay dry. Once we reach peak daytime heating in the evening, thunderstorms will develop along the previously mentioned warm front. By this time, the front will likely be north of Baton Rouge. Areas along and north I-10/12 have the potential of being clipped by these storms anywhere from late Tuesday afternoon through the evening. Rainfall will be much harder to get closer to the coast. Most of the overnight hours will be relatively dry, but spotty showers cannot be ruled out. Lows will be near 67 degrees under mainly cloudy skies. 

Up Next: The Capital Area will be south of a warm front Wednesday, leading to warm and muggy conditions. Highs will once again make it to the 80s under mainly cloudy skies. The daytime hours will feature isolated thunderstorms. A much greater coverage will arrive around and after sunset, along a cold front. Some storms with both rounds could be strong (see below). The cold front will sweep the rain out late Wednesday, leading to a cooler Thursday and Friday with smaller rain chances. Another warm front will pass on Saturday morning, leading to a warm and muggy day. An approaching front will once again lead to many storms in the Capital Area, some could be strong (see below). All told, 1-3” of rain is expected in the next week. A cooldown will follow for the 2nd half of the weekend, and into early next week.

Severe Weather Odds:

Wednesday – Being the second straight day with warmth and mugginess, the atmosphere will be energized. But one thing that will be lacking is strong support in the upper atmosphere. For this reason, afternoon storms should develop but struggle to become significantly stronger. Nevertheless, one or two rogue storms could intensify to severe limits. Damaging winds, hail, and a brief spin-up would be a possibility with those. Then during the evening, a cold front will trigger a broken line of storms around or shortly after dark. Damaging winds are the primary concern with these, but a brief tornado is not out of the question.  

While there will be a few variables out of place, Wednesday could bring a sneaky severe weather threat if individual storms can find a favorable environment. There is a Level 2/5 risk for severe weather on Wednesday mainly north of I-10/12. That would indicate a potential for isolated severe weather reports.

Saturday – Being several days out, there are still a lot of unknowns with how everything plays out on Saturday. There is support for a rather potent upper-level disturbance swinging through the region. If it takes the right track, most variables would be in place for what could be a bigger severe weather threat. The Storm Prediction Center highlights much of the area as having the potential for severe weather on Saturday. Details should come into focus later in the week as the responsible disturbance moves over the West Coast.

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-- Balin

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