Warm, dry afternoons will continue across the Capital Area through the middle of the week. We’re keeping a close eye on the weekend forecast as scattered showers and thunderstorms will return just in time for Halloween.

More of the Same: crisp mornings, warm afternoons and high clouds through Thursday

Halloween Trick: showers possible for the first time since early in the month

Muggy for a While: weekend into next week

Tonight and Tomorrow: A few high clouds will mix into otherwise clear skies tonight, and lows will bottom out in the mid 50s. Wednesday will bring plenty of sunshine, pushing high temperatures up into the mid 80s.

Since the air remains dry with low humidity values, the potential for fires to ignite will remain elevated. Any parched grass and brush will light up easily, so abide by local burn bans and avoid using equipment that could spark.

Up Next: Thursday will follow a nearly identical pattern with a cool start in the mid-50s followed by a sunny, warm afternoon in the mid 80s. Sunshine will be the dominant feature in the sky with just a few high clouds.

The first signs of changes in almost two weeks will be noticeable at the end of the workweek. On Friday, winds will turn out of the south, drawing moist air back into the Capital Area. This moisture will set the stage for a very weak disturbance in the atmosphere to move into the region on Saturday. In combination, these two variables will create scattered showers and thunderstorms—the first real chance for a few neighborhoods to measure rain since early October. Scattered is an important word right now, as this does not have the makings of a major rain event, and there could be some spots that miss the showers.  

While the rain is the good news, the timing is the bad news. Showers on Saturday could mean costumes could get damp for some trick-or-treaters. Keep an eye on the forecast as the timing of showers will come into better focus with time.

By Sunday, a warmer sinking air mass in the atmosphere will shut down organized showers and allow some sun to break through. Expect highs for the end of the weekend and early next week to soar into the upper 80s, and thanks to lingering humidity, lows will be muggy in the mid 60s.

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The Tropics: The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and broader Atlantic Basin will remain completely quiet. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected anywhere in the North Atlantic over the next 7 days.

– Josh 

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