LAKELAND, Fla. — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released its 2026 hurricane season outlook. NOAA predicts a below-average season with 8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes. This generally aligns with Colorado State University's forecast that was issued in April. 

The development of an El Niño is the primary driver for the slightly below-average prediction. This is all but certain to develop by peak hurricane season per the latest trends and guidance, and there are some signs that the El Niño could be strong. El Niño typically reduces the amount of storm activity in the Atlantic basin because it increases the amount of vertical wind shear. Vertical wind shear is strong wind in the upper levels of the atmosphere that typically prevents circulations like tropical systems from becoming fully formed. The opposite is true for La Niña, which typically reduces the amount of vertical wind shear.

As defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO” for short. Keep in mind that El Niño and La Niña do not “cause” any one specific weather event; rather, the two phases of ENSO influence changes in global climate patterns that then increase the likelihood of specific weather events. Once again, ENSO is not “to blame” for any one storm system, temperature anomaly, or hurricane.

However, there is another competing factor that plays a role in the prediction. Atlantic ocean temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer than normal, with trade winds weaker than average. Such conditions would tend to support a more active year. NOAA's National Weather Service Director Ken Graham says, “Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold... that is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”

The Storm Station echoes Graham's reminder, so prepare accordingly. There have been seasons with a lot of storms but few impacts to land and seasons with few storms but a lot of impacts to land. For more on the season ahead and preparedness, visit wbrz.com/weather and click on the hurricane center.

Watch NOAA's 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook announcement here: