A brief warm-up today before a cold front brings another cool-down tonight. Expect lower humidity and crisp mornings through the middle of the week.

Today & Tonight:
After a cool start, highs will climb into the low to mid 80s this afternoon with increasing clouds ahead of a cold front. A few isolated showers may develop late in the day, but most areas will stay dry. The front moves through this evening, followed by cooler and much drier air overnight. Lows will dip into the 50s to near 60 by Wednesday morning with noticeably lower humidity.

Up Next:
Wednesday and Thursday will feel like fall again with sunshine, low humidity, and cool mornings. Thursday morning could be one of the coolest starts of the season, followed by pleasant afternoons near or just below average. By Saturday, the next upper-level disturbance and a trailing cold front will move toward the lower Mississippi Valley. There’s still some uncertainty in the timing, but confidence is growing that most of the area will see measurable rainfall between late Saturday and early Sunday.

At this point, widespread severe weather looks unlikely, though a few stronger storms can’t be ruled out depending on how quickly instability develops ahead of the front. Shear and instability appear limited, but the setup will still bring gusty winds and pockets of heavy rain. Behind the system, drier and slightly cooler air will return early next week, keeping the overall fall pattern in place.

Tropics:
A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean continues to organize, producing winds near 45 mph. Environmental conditions are becoming more favorable for development, and a tropical storm is expected to form later today. Heavy rain and gusty winds are expected, with potential for flooding and rough surf later this week across parts of the northern Caribbean islands. The next name on the list is Melissa.

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– Dave

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