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Monday Evening Video Forecast
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The heat and steam stick around for another day, but an approaching cool front will push it out of here by midweek. The same front will also help steer major tropical impacts associated with what will become Hurricane Helene to the east.
Tonight & Tomorrow: Skies will clear on Monday evening, leaving behind a mostly clear sky. Patchy fog is not out of the question for areas low in elevation and close to water, but it should not be a widespread issue. Morning lows will be in the low to mid-70s. The full summer steam will be upon the region on Tuesday also. Look for a high temperature in the low to mid-90s with plenty of humidity. Peak feels-like temperatures be close to 100° during the afternoon. While a stray shower cannot be ruled out, most will avoid them during the day. A cool front will be approaching from the northwest by evening. Its presence might be enough to trigger a spotty evening shower.
Up Next: The cool front mentioned above will slowly slide through the region on Wednesday. A few more showers might get squeezed out in doing so. That said, the overall coverage of rain on Wednesday will be scattered. The latest data lock in on a cold front passage by Thursday, delivering a reduction in temperatures, drop in humidity, and diminishing rain chances late this week and into the weekend.
The cold front will also play an important role in the track of what will eventually become Hurricane Helene. That storm will enter the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday (see The Tropics section). Those that benefit from the passage of said front will also be effectively shielded from major tropical impacts. This is the likely scenario for southeast Louisiana. However, areas to the east won't be quite as lucky. A major hurricane landfall is possible closer to the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region on Thursday. Stick with the Storm Station as new data continues to arrive.
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The Tropics: The National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone (P.T.C.) Nine on Monday morning. Remember that the "potential tropical cyclone" terminology is used when a disturbance has yet to acquire tropical characteristics, but could do so and make a landfall within 48 hours. This allows the National Hurricane Center to begin issuing tropical alerts before the system truly develops.
Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches have been posted for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba. More tropical alerts are likely along parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast later this week.
The latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center has the storm becoming on tropical storm by Monday or Tuesday. At that time, the system would take the name Helene. Further intensification is likely as it bears down on the U.S. Gulf Coast. A landfall is likely somewhere between Pensacola and Tampa as a hurricane. Once a well-defined center of circulation consolidates, a narrower landfall region will be determined. Per the latest information, direct major impacts in the capital area are unlikely.
Meanwhile, a tropical wave is approaching the Cabo Verde Islands. Conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system. A tropical depression is likely to form by the mid to late parts of the week while moving westward across the central tropical Atlantic. Should this system reach tropical storm stretch, it would take the name Isaac. This disturbance does not appear to bring any impacts to Louisiana in the long-term.
-- Meteorologist Malcolm Byron
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