The Storm Station is keeping tabs on a lot this week: persistent daily downpours, a pattern shake-up by the Fourth, and new stirrings in the tropics.

Tonight & Tomorrow: Though a stray shower or storm can't be ruled out, the evening and overnight hours will trend much drier overall. Expect partial clearing as temperatures dip into the low 70s. Early morning sunshine will eventually be replaced by a partly sunny sky. As temperatures heat up, scattered showers and thunderstorms will crop up. But in typical summer fashion, the day will be far from a washout with the placement and timing of rain somewhat random. A haze might be noticeable at times thanks to Saharan dust moving over the central Gulf Coast. Dust can sometimes have a cooling effect on temperatures by blocking incoming sunlight. Even so, highs could still reach the low 90s.

Tuesday, Wednesday, & Thursday: Moisture will be somewhat in question on Tuesday as an axis of deep tropical moisture hangs out to the northeast. It will clip parts of the Capital Region, just enough to keep scattered storms in the forecast. That axis of moisture will migrate into the Capital Area on Wednesday, allowing rain chances to spike higher. But on Thursday, its departure means a corresponding drop in rain chances. Not everyone will see rain each day, but know that passing storms could interrupt outdoor activities at any time. While dry, it’ll be warm and humid with highs in the low to mid 90s.

Holiday Weekend: Rain coverages will be at a minimum just in time for the 4th of July. Storms will become fewer and farther between with the majority managing to stay dry on Friday and Saturday. In turn, heat will build with highs soaring into the mid 90s. The heat index, or feels-like temperature, might even necessitate a Heat Advisory. So be sure to stay plenty hydrated and take it easy outside while celebrating the nation’s independence. The weather looks great for evening fireworks as of now. By the weekend, the Gulf will need to be monitored (see below).

The Tropics: Barry made landfall on Sunday evening in eastern Mexico as a tropical depression. The system is expected to become post tropical by Monday morning. Heavy rain is likely to continue over portions of eastern Mexico for the next couple of days, resulting in a flash flooding a mudslide risk. No impacts are expected in the United States.

Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center has highlighted parts of the Southeast U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts as an area to watch. Over the holiday weekend, an area of low pressure could develop along a remnant front in the region. Gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as it drifts slowly off the coastline. At this time, there is no distinct threat to the local area. The Storm Station will be monitoring this throughout the week.

Get the latest 7-day forecast and real-time weather updates HERE.

Watch live news HERE.

— Meteorologist Malcolm Byron

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